Analysts predict NUG collapse could start within
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Phyo/Thuta Kyaw (NP News) - Jan 15
Some political and military analysts have predicted through The Statesman that the collapse of the NUG will begin from within, and they say that this is already happening.
The Communist Party of Burma (CPB), then a powerful armed group in Myanmar, found it difficult to control its subordinate ranks, and the Panghsang coup took place, causing the groups to disintegrate.
Similarly, there are subordinate forces under the NUG that are not obeying the command system, and these forces are organizing PDFs that are not under the NUG as allies and operating parallel structures.
Likewise, there are also frictions between the NUG-formed People’s Defense Force (PDF) and the People Administration Force (PAF), as well as threats and violence against the public.
“It is amazing that it has lasted so long despite the weak leadership. Because when there is no solid direction, they are changing to become warlords. This is happening a lot now. When they become warlords and try to stand up for themselves in their own regions, they start doing whatever they want. At that time, they may even do things that they themselves did not like or were dissatisfied with in the past. We have already calculated that this path would take place if NUG did not have a good direction from the beginning. It is because there are already flaws in the organization,” said U Thein Htun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategy Studies.
Currently, in areas controlled by the NUG in the Anyar region, marijuana plantations and illegal drugs are becoming more abundant, providing a lucrative source of income for the PDF.
“Bo Lat Yar from Myaing has just become well known recently. Similar incidents have happened many times before. PDF and PAF groups have even killed each other. Another issue is drugs. The drug problem will become uncontrollable. This is a prediction. Another point is that forces under the NUG are turning into a ‘one region, one commander’ model. This has already happened in the past; now it is just becoming stronger. They have money in their hands, and their desire for money is growing. As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the NUG leadership to control them. If the situation worsens, they will turn their guns back toward their own side. Whether in Upper Myanmar or elsewhere, the NUG’s situation will collapse from within. Right now, the internal decay has already begun,” he said.