Strategic deterrence in a game-changing project within Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor
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Tun Mon Thet (NP News)- Mar 18
The time has now arisen to forge a new port hub at the heart between Indian Ocean, Gulf of Thailand, the South China Sea, and East Asia’s mainland countries. Myanmar and Russia have recently confirmed agreement on establishing the Dawei Deep-sea Port – a potential multimodal transport hub with Special Economic Zone – in Tanintharyi Region, Myanmar’s southern territory.
Situated on the coast of the Andaman Sea with direct link to the Indian Ocean on one hand, the designated Dawei Deep-sea Port is not just an infrastructure development or a port hub – it is a game-changer and a gateway that will unlock the new chapter of collaboration in geopolitical economy with trust between the global major nations, the global south nations, and friendly and reliable nations from the mainland of Asia with emerging economy.
“The projected vision for the Dawei Deep-sea Port focuses on building multimodal connectivity, which has become increasingly important today. The plan involves constructing ports on either side of the narrow land strip separating two vast oceans, and connecting these two ports with fast trade routes. This system aims to make shipping and transportation more efficient, improving the speed and effectiveness of cargo handling. Through this approach, it eliminates the need to construct a large-scale dredging canal project which is very time-consuming and provides a direct maritime transport route,” U Khin Maung Zaw, the joint-secretary of the Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies, remarks on the project potentiality.
Myanmar must seize this strategic opportunity in 2025 and beyond, ensuring no setbacks, by forging strong alliances with its friendly nations. The key challenge for the Myanmar government lies in overcoming disruptive forces that threaten the success of such projects, including internal conflicts, instability, protests, and the external influence of neocolonial tactics aimed at sowing division through "divide and rule" strategies between Myanmar and its neighbours.
The Myitsone Dam project serves as a stark reminder in Myanmar's modernization journey, where progress was halted at the state-level cooperation due to both internal and external interference, ultimately undermining the country’s electricity generation capacity. Both authorities and people of Myanmar had better learn lesson from this precedent to overcome obstacles and ensure the successful implementation of future strategic initiatives.
Historically, the Dawei Special Economic Zone project has faced significant standstill and uncertainty. Back in 2008, the Myanmar government granted Italian-Thai Development (ITD) a 75-year concession to transform Dawei into Southeast Asia's largest business complex, a visionary project that promised to reshape the region’s economic landscape.
Along with the Myanmar's political shift in the 2010s, ITD relentlessly pursued this mega infrastructure project, attracting high-profile investors, including keen interest from Singaporean financiers. With Myanmar’s economic liberalization in 2011, foreign investment surged, and Singaporean investors made strategic moves, acquiring significant shares in ITD under the guise of willing to capitalize on the project’s potential. Yet, the project’s trajectory shifted. The original ambition of Dawei becoming Asia’s next major port hub began to fade as the project dealt with intentionally-manipulated financial challenges and persistent delays, ultimately facing over a decade of stagnation.
In late 2020, Myanmar’s government terminated seven key concession agreements linked to the Dawei SEZ, including those with ITD, citing financial non-compliance and contractual failures. Then, the project was free to step next moves.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s official visit to Russia in the first week of March 2025, at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin, is composed to yield remarkable outcomes for Myanmar. The visit is set to enhance the country’s investments, economic growth, and trade, while also boosting Myanmar’s diplomatic standing on the international stage, especially in the meanwhile of turbulent domestic conflicts.
Thus, by strengthening ties with Russia, Myanmar is confident to leave the negative perceptions and hostility from countries that have long held unfavorable views toward Myanmar, including certain island nations in Southeast Asia, behind.
However, there is no doubt that deterrence, disturbances, threats and ill-will efforts will try to intervene in the implementation of such strategically high value infrastructure development. Emerging alternative route from Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean to the Malacca Strait Choke Point means a power balancing in the Asia Pacific region in terms of maritime power, commercial trade power or in the geopolitical economy context.
Russia has the world's second-most powerful military, following the United States. Even though there cannot be the Russian Naval Bases in Myanmar territory, Dawei’s location could serve as a critical point for naval influence by allowing the break journey for the Russian Navy in the region. In the context of maritime security, having the Russian Navy in the strategic Andaman Sea – next to the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea where the U.S. Navy has been trying to impose aggression– will somehow balance the geopolitical weight in this region at the meanwhile of Russia and China are maintaining a comprehensive strategic partnership in their bilateral ties even though the two countries are not forming military-political alliances.
Given the ongoing commitments expressed by Russia and China, tie of those two major powers is expected to have a harmonious move again in geopolitical reforming in Asia Pacific.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergay Lavrov addressed, in a recent interview with U.S. bloggers, the highest level of their bilateral ties with trust, saying: “We never had the relations with China which were that good, that confidential, that long-term build, and that would be enjoying support of the peoples of both countries. The Americans know that we would not betray our commitments, legal commitments, political commitments which we develop with the Chinese.”
In addition, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated the China’s stance of relations with its friendly nations, at the press conference on the sidelines of the third session of the 14th National People’s Congress, that: “Friends should be permanent and the interests should be shared,” instead of there is no permanent friends, but only permanent interests which the Western world has long emphasized.
In conclusion, the Dawei Deep-sea Port project somehow places with vested interests of the global major nations and the global south nations in the ongoing process of reshaping the world order towards the multipolarity.