From a ceasefire agreement to the road to stability in 2025
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By Phyo Lin Aung (NP News) - Jan 27
Recently, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated at the regular press conference of the MFA of the PRC on January 20that the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the MNDAA (Kokang armed group) have reached a ceasefire agreement on Saturday, January 18. The discussions took place in Kunming, and both sides expressed gratitude to Beijing for its role in promoting peace.
Mao Ning further emphasized that a peaceful situation in northern Myanmar is beneficial not only for Myanmar but also for all neighbouring countries. It contributes to the security, stability, and development of the border areas between Myanmar and China. According to her, China will continue to enhance efforts for peace and will maintain its support for the peace process in northern Myanmar. This indicates that China may also broker peace talks with other ethnic armed groups to bring greater stability to Myanmar. China's involvement reflects its broader geopolitical interests, as stability in Myanmar will positively impact regional trade, infrastructure projects, and cross-border cooperation.
The State Administration Council (SAC) government must engage in immediate negotiations with various ethnic armed groups, as some have seized control of major cities. This situation could lead to significant economic obstacles for local residents, disrupting daily life and limiting access to essential resources. Moreover, the local population may live in a constant fear for their safety, as ongoing conflict increases risks and instability in the affected areas. The lack of security and basic services has led to an increase in poverty, further complicating any peace-building efforts.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are an estimated 3,093,700 internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Myanmar as of May 27, 2024. These individuals are primarily suffering from the consequences of ongoing armed conflicts, which have forced them to flee their homes and disrupt their livelihoods. In addition, some armed groups have exploited this situation to further their own interests. For instance, in resource-rich areas where these groups have taken control, they have been extracting resources for their own benefit, intensifying the local population's suffering.
While these groups often justify their armed struggle as a fight for self-autonomy and the protection of local populations, their control over these regions has, in many cases, led to the exploitation of local resources, exacerbating the hardships of the local people. Rather than alleviating their suffering, the actions of these armed groups have further burdened the population, making it harder for any genuine development or peace efforts to take root.
Despite efforts to resolve the situation, conflicts continue to break out across the country, further complicating the government’s ability to address the multifaceted challenges it faces. The government must not only deal with the direct consequences of these conflicts but also address the underlying issues such as ethnic tensions, governance, and economic inequality to bring lasting peace and stability to the affected regions. International stakeholders and neighbouring countries, are increasingly urging Myanmar to prioritize dialogue over violence and work toward inclusive solutions that address the root causes of the conflict.
In this context, the signing of a ceasefire by the MNDAA, one of the major armed ethnic groups, can be seen as a political development. This development could indicate a shift towards seeking peaceful resolutions and political processes to address the ongoing conflict. If the ceasefire holds and the government successfully engages with other ethnic armed groups, it could create a conducive environment for future political dialogue and elections—crucial steps for Myanmar's long-term peace and stability. The ceasefire could pave the way for further de-escalation of conflict, which is necessary before any broader peace agreement can be achieved.
One remarkable fact is that the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) meeting is scheduled to take place at the end of January. Many people are hoping that significant changes will emerge from this session. This is particularly important because the SAC government has announced its intention to hold election in 2025. According to the constitution, the NDSC is responsible for ensuring that general elections are held within six months from the date the state of emergency ordinance is annulled, as outlined in Section 426. As the country moves toward a potential democratic transition, there is growing anticipation regarding both the outcomes of the NDSC meeting and the election timetable. The successful conclusion of these discussions could serve as a signal of a broader commitment to addressing the will of the people and moving towards a more democratic future. –