Myanmar: Beyond two years after State of Emergency
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Tun MT (NP News) – Jan 13
1st February 2023 will mark the second year of the constituted coup!
However, the State's peace and tranquility haven’t yet returned until the country is turning into its second anniversary of the power takeover by the military.
Background:
The 2021 political transition plays the result of the blemish of vote rigging that occurred in 2020 Election. More than 25 percent of suspected frauds were found in the scrutiny. The National League for Democracy (NLD) denied all legitimate measures, of what the military proposed and demanded, to clear the election riggings.
NLD’s objections to execute as per the de jure provisions for nullifying the electoral fraud status claimed the February 1, 2021 event. It was in accordance with Section 417 of the 2008 Constitution.
Section 417 of the Constitution expresses as follows;
“If there arises or if there is sufficient reason for a state of emergency to arise that may disintegrate the Union or disintegrate national solidarity or that may cause the loss of sovereignty, DUE TO ACTS OR ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE UNION BY INSURGENCY, VIOLENCE AND WRONGFUL FORCIBLE MEANS, the President may, after coordinating with the National Defence and Security Council, promulgate an ordinance and declare a state of emergency. In the said ordinance, it shall be stated that the area where the state of emergency in operation is the entire Nation and the specified duration is one year from the day of promulgation.”
After the coup, the opposition entities activated a destructive armed rebellion in the name of the ‘Spring Revolution’. The American and the West blocs were primarily involved in equipping the insurgents.
The Spring Revolution, having a double face, targeted the soft sector rather than fighting back against the military. Since then, the country has been trapped in turmoil, arbitrary assassinations and extrajudicial killings. Thousands of civilians sacrificed their lives in the de facto terrorism practices by the authority of ‘armed resistance’ as being accused of being alleged informers.
Calculations and Speculations as per Constitutional Provisos:
As time is flying and getting closer to the 2nd anniversary of the coup, questions have arisen ‘what will be next?’ or ‘What will happen?’
The very simple answer lies in ‘Status of Tranquility’. No matter whether the fresh election is convened in 2023 or not or whatsoever, the status of TRANQUILITY is embedded at the foundation for Myanmar’s bona fide democracy reinstallation.
Section 425 of the Constitution states: “The National Defence and Security Council may, if the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services submits the extension of the prescribed duration by giving reasons why he has not been able to accomplish the assigned duties, on the expiry of the term of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, NORMALLY permit two extensions of the prescribed duration for a term of six months for each extension.”
The word ‘NORMALLY’ takes account in this hostile state of affairs, U Maung Myint, a former Union Minister of Thein Sein Administration, remarks.
“The constitution prescribes solutions only for the normal condition in Section 425. It doesn’t mention what to do in irregular and ongoing unstable situations. Therefore, we cannot say what the NDSC (National Defence and Security Council) will consider or conclude for this situation as per Section 425,” U Maung Myint commented.
He continued, “I would say the PDF to be unarmed and stop terrorist acts immediately. Then, we can be heading back to democracy tomorrow. Without tranquility, it’s impossible to restore democracy.”
On the other hand, the supreme power is vested in the hand of the NDSC as per Chapter 11 of the Constitution for the State of Emergency.
After completion of the assigned tasks, the Commander-in-Chief shall return the power to the NDSC in accordance with Section 422.
As per Sections 428, 429 and 430, power shall be continued holding by the NDSC until all three pillars of the State are formed by the elected representatives through election; but no specific time frame is mentioned.
“The NDSC is responsible to perform their functions and duties until legislative, executive and judicial bodies have been formed in accord with Section 430; which doesn’t prescribe a specific time frame for transferring the power. It means the NDSC has the right to hold the power as long as the State’s tranquility cannot be restored. Then, Section 417 will be repeated,” Dr. Aye Maung, Chairman of the Arakan Front Party remarked.
He concluded, “If the destructive forces including foreign countries continue trying to ruin the upcoming election, the NDSC will rule the country, as it has the right as prescribed by the Constitution, again and again since the terrorist acts are unending. Then, the NDSC can assign the Commander-in-Chief as per Section 417.”
Other options:
The NDSC is expected to hold Legislative power but to delegate Executive and Judicial powers to other appropriate bodies at the Union level or Regional or State or Self-autonomous levels.
The appropriate body may be the one like State Administration Council, which, however, is expected to be dissolved or reshuffled or reorganized or even renamed as per the Constitutional provisions after February 1.
Section 427 (b) prescribes, “The National Defence and Security Council has the right to exercise the sovereign power until the new President has been elected and the Union level administrative bodies have been formed in accord with the provisions in this Constitution. In exercising thereof, the legislative power shall be exercised by itself. The executive power and the judicial power may be transferred to and exercised by the appropriate Bodies that have been formed or a suitable person at the Union, Region or State and Self-Administered Area levels.”
CIC will decide:
However, no matter what the analysts calculate the possibilities after 1st February 2023, the answer will lie at the head of the Commander-in-Chief, who currently rules the country in all three pillars as mandated by the Constitution.
The former 88 student leader, as well as the Chairman of the People’s Party, Ko Ko Gyi said, “The SAC will be reorganized or renamed. Or another fresh body may also be established. It is up to the NDSC decision in the name of the Acting President. However, as the Commander-in-Chief has been ruling and leading the government body since 1st February 2021, the upcoming sphere will also be as per the consensus and the desire of the Commander-in-Chief.”
Myanmar’s prospect beyond February 1, 2023 lies at the heart of the State’s Tranquility; whether or not terrorist plots are ongoing; and the imagination of the Commander-in-Chief. All three items weigh balance for the country’s back to normalcy.
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