Countdown to election : Challenges and prospects for political change
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Phyo Lin Aung (NP News)- March 17
Myanmar's general election is scheduled to be held in December this year or January next year, Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, announced to the world through a joint press conference after meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko. He stated, "We declared a state of emergency in our country because of vote rigging and took temporary responsibility. Elections will be held in accordance with the law soon. I would like to say that free and fair elections are planned to be held in December 2025 or January 2026 at earliest," during the press conference.
In addition, SAC Chairman also highlighted, “If we truly want a multi-party democratic system, we will definitely succeed if we work together without sectorial differences,” in response to media inquiries after his visit to Russia and Belarus. His comments come amid growing international attention on the political situation in Myanmar.
Many people believe that elections could offer a potential solution to the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar. This is widely seen as the primary pathway for change by the majority of the population. However, some international actors argue that peace-building and conflict resolution should take precedence over elections in resolving the Myanmar crisis. For now, elections remain the most viable route toward political transformation and potential democratic consolidation.
Regarding the prospects of this election, many are concerned that it may not unfold as anticipated. There is skepticism about whether the elections will occur within the timeframe mentioned by the SAC Chairman.
In this regard, U Khin Maung Zaw, a political analyst, shared his perspective with the Statesman Journal, noting, "There is no reason that the election cannot be happened. At least 110 townships have been listed. We must try to do more than this. The baseline is that 110 towns are being prepared. 110 is still a small scale. However, starting from scratch like this is the first step to expanding the political spectrum. When there are domestic and foreign policy challenges, expanding the political spectrum is a long-term goal.”
U Kyaw Zeya, a former regional representative, also weighed in on the situation, saying, "I think that they will hold elections as per what they aimed in accordance with the multi-party democratic elections. And they also say that the SAC Chairman himself emphasized that there should be a free and fair election with dignity. The word 'dignity' is too much. Let there be real dignity. The international community also talks about the word 'participation'—there is too much rhetoric. The people know who will participate. The people know, and the SAC should know. Then it will be a free and dignified election. I think that, as the SAC Chairman said, he will transfer the three powers to the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) during the next six-month extension. He will hand over the three pillars of power to the NDSC. The NDSC will organize the election, and after organizing the election, the election must be held within six months. So, in my opinion, he will strictly follow and implement in accordance with the 2008 Constitution."
Dr. Aye Maung from the Arakan Front Party (AFP) has also reviewed the ongoing process that the SAC government is pursuing. He said, "If you notice, there are two directions that SAC is going. The first is that free and fair elections will be held. Then, political power will be transferred to the elected government. These two are connected to the election. By including these two, we will be able to accurately analyze the coming period."
Additionally, he emphasized the importance of considering how and when the power transition will occur, stating, “If the election is held in December, will SAC transfer power to the NDSC by August 1, as required by the constitution? According to the constitution, the election must be organized by the NDSC. In this regard, there's another question: If it is to be transferred, after the election is held, will the transfer of power happen simultaneously?"
Regarding this issue, Dr. Aye Maung said, “If there is a transfer of power, we have to consider the financial year that existed before the transfer. Because if a new government comes in, the previous government will have to hand over power and authority. If we consider these factors, the next transfer of power would likely occur in 2026. We need to think about the fiscal year. Myanmar's fiscal year runs from April 1st to March 31st. So, no matter how the next government is formed, it must take effect on April 1, 2026.”
The upcoming general elections in Myanmar represent a critical turning point in the country's political trajectory. While many view the elections as an essential step toward resolving the ongoing political crisis and advancing Myanmar's democratic transition, significant challenges remain. The process of organizing free, fair, and transparent elections under the current circumstances, alongside the eventual transfer of power, will test the resilience of Myanmar's political institutions and its commitment to democratic governance.
The political climate in Myanmar is fraught with uncertainty, and while the SAC has set forth plans for elections, questions regarding the timeline, voter participation, and the eventual transition of power remain unresolved. In the coming months, all eyes will be on Myanmar as the country navigates this pivotal moment.