Rebel forces in Kayah State facing mounting challenges

27/10/2025 15:27

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Phyo(NP News)- Oct 27
A military analyst from Kayah State told The Statesman that the situation for groups rebelling against the government in Kayah State is deteriorating rapidly.
Reports now indicate that allied forces, including the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), are struggling to maintain a foothold or conduct effective operations in the state.
One of the most notable battles fought by the rebel forces took place in Loikaw. On December 10, the KNDF captured the state police headquarters there. However, their main objective — to seize the State Hluttaw and the government offices — was ultimately thwarted by Tatmadaw counter-offensives.
“When they first launched an attack, their plan was to seize the state Hluttaw and the government offices. But by the time they reached near the Hluttaw, they couldn’t advance any further. They couldn’t even get close to the government offices or the State Military Command Headquarters. Thinking it would be easier, they diverted toward the state police station and the prison instead. Even when their defenses collapsed, nothing really changed. In the end, the battle dragged on. Their supply lines also started to fail. Weapons coming from the northeast were intercepted. That’s when they took a serious hit. Do you remember? There was one time they were caught at Hopong. The second time they were intercepted, they lost most of their weapons and ammunition supplies. Things started to turn around after that. As the fighting went on, whoever could maintain strong supply routes eventually gained the upper hand,” the source said.
He added, “In the long run, their transportation and communication routes have been cut off. On top of that, their donations and external support have dried up. Without those donations, it’s difficult for them to get even the most basic supplies on the ground — bullets, food supplies, and medicine. As these supply routes remain disrupted for a long time, they can no longer keep up with the army. The Tatmadaw, on the other hand, is strong — it has solid alliances and well-established struct­ures. Gradually, the so-called revoluti­onary groups are losing territory. Enga­ging in combat requires a huge amount of ammunition. The attacking side always needs more than the defending side. So, it’s not easy at all. In the long term, their territory will only continue to shrink.” –