Myanmar likely to hold election in late 2025
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Tun Mon Thet (NP News) - Sep 4
Despite not being a panacea for the war-torn Myanmar, there is no better way for the country to restore normalcy rather than the election. Over a three-year-long conflict, thousands of lives of Myanmar citizens have already been sacrificed in the battles, extrajudicial killings, and terroristic plots. Thus, the stakeholders, analysts, and the public with mutual ideology are advocating to termination of the civil war and expecting to regain normal life.
Background:
The 2021 political transition was the result of the blemish of vote rigging that occurred in the 2020 Election. More than 25 percent of suspected frauds were found in the scrutiny conducted by the Tatmadaw. The National League for Democracy (NLD) denied all legitimate measures, of what the military proposed and demanded, to clear the electoral riggings. NLD’s objections to executing as per the de jure provisions for nullifying the electoral fraud status claimed the February 1, 2021 incident.
Fixing the country is not an easy job:
Activated with the ‘Spring Revolution’ equipped by the West bloc in the middle of 2021, the opponents’ aim to utter devastation has now reached a certain level with high incentives of de facto hostilities. Basically, an ‘election’ is the best among the rest to remedy the war-ravaged country back to stability, no matter if sooner or later in 2025 can it be convened.
Different advocacies arise on convening the election whether it should be as soon as possible in 2025 or as usual in late 2025. Of course, the debates have different opinions, but both views undoubtedly come out in the good interest of the public and the country.
U Htet Aung Kyaw, vice-chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party, comments: “Our country is now suffering so badly. Of course, the new government has to be formed on schedule with the commencement of the budget year, in April. However, we are wondering if the election can be convened early in 2025 so that the power can be transferred to the elected government earlier, whose legitimacy will be stronger in the international arena.”
In fact, the political parties will have more favourable electoral preparations if they have more time because the Political Parties Registration Law determines the lowest and minimum qualifications for the political parties to be eligible to contest in the election. Most provisos of the law demand high qualifications for the Union-level running parties.
U Htet Aung Kyaw continued, “We are saying this for the sake of the country. In fact, taking more time is better for us, the political parties that will be running at the Union level, since there are provisions we have to fulfill to be qualified to contest in the election. But we take into account the benefits of the country and the people more than the party’s interest.”
Chairman of the Arakan Front Party, Dr. Aye Maung – a renowned politician in Myanmar – also advocates to convene the election as early as it can be. “The election will help overcome the current dilemma capably in a neat way and convening the election in the early months of 2025 is the only and the best way to resolve the current problems,” he said in an interview.
However, Chairman of the Union Election Commission U Ko Ko reportedly informed that the election is tentatively scheduled to be held in November 2025 during the meeting held on 24 August in Naypyidaw by the UEC and the political parties.
“The election is scheduled to be convened in November in 2025, the UEC informed us during the meeting on 24 August. No signal is seen that it can be held in early of the year,” U Khaing Min, vice-chairman of the New National Democracy Party said.
“It is better to hold the election as usual we have done in the past. Even if we can hold the election providing that the security condition favours us, we need a certain duration of time to have accurate data and voter lists. It isn’t a good solution to finish the situation within a short time. In addition, we need to understand that the election isn’t the cure-all solution for all happenings although it is the best way to exit at present,” U Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Although this editorial does not sit on any view of this debate, the election is likely to be held in November 2025 based on past experiences and the journalistic point of view.
The current office of the Commander-in-Chief is already secured until 31 January 2025 under the State of Emergency term. What is more, the exact date of the Election Day has to be announced at least six months ahead, which cannot be done in the State Administration Council term; only the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) can proceed together with the Union Election Commission.
The National Census is projected to take in upcoming October 2024, from which, a more detailed and accurate preliminary voter list can be prepared. In addition, the financial year commences in April. Hence, it is reasonable to establish the new parliament in March so as to form the cabinet punctually with the commencement of the financial year.
After 1990, general elections in Myanmar under the 2008 Constitution were usually convened in November: the 2010 Election was held on 7 November; the 2015 was held on 8 November; and the 2020 Election was on 8 November. Last but not least, the Myanmar government consistently sticks to schemed plans no matter how hard the advocacies are made.